Whenever the Blue Dems running the Federal Government release the monthly job numbers people should always be LEERY.
The reported headline number came in at 169,000 jobs created in August. However, without getting too in depth, there are two surveys conducted every month, 1.) the Establishment Survey and 2.) the Household Survey.
The reported headline number, 169,000, is derived from the Establishment Survey, whereas the unemployment rate is derived from the Household Survey. When determining the number of jobs created in the ES, if a person gets a second job that is counted as a job created even though another person didn’t gain employment. When determining the unemployment rate, if people drop out of the labor force, the unemployment rate will go down.
As a result, a drop in the unemployment rate is not necessarily indicative of more jobs being created!
Look At These Problems
This month’s Employment Situation Summary is rife with problems. Let’s take a gander at what they are:
- The employment change for July was revised down by 58,000, from +162,000 to +104,000.
- Last month the BLS revised June employment down by 7,000, from +195,000 to +188,000. This month, the BLS said June was still not correct and revised June lower by another 16,000 to +172,000.
In spite of the above, the unemployment rate dropped 0.1 to 7.3%. Remember, it’s the household survey that determines the unemployment rate, NOT the establishment survey baseline jobs number.
What did the Household Survey show?
- The number of employed dropped by 115,000.
- The civilian labor force fell by 312,000.
- The civilian population rose by 203,000.
- The number of people who dropped out of the labor force increased by 516,000.
- The labor force participation rate (the labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population) fell 0.2 to 63.2%. That is the lowest since summer of 1978.
The drop in the unemployment rate was caused by the increases in both the number of people who dropped out of the labor force and the civilian population, NOT because of jobs actually being created.
The “Best” Part….
The government employed 20,041,000 people in July and it shot up to 20,365,000 people in August. That is an increase of 324,000 government workers being paid by taxes taken from the private sector.
The private sector workforce was 113,164,000 in July and it fell to 112,886,000. That is a decrease of 278,000 people in one month who contribute to the paychecks for those government employees.
As Paul Harvey would say, “..and now you know the rest of the story.”
It’s tough out there. But, please, keep rising.