What is the true correlation between gun ownership and violent crime 2.0

With the recent shooting incidents beginning to rattle the cage of the feeble minded gun control freaks, it might be a good idea to update a blog post written awhile back.

Since that article was written, the FBI has updated its crime statistics to include 2012. The left has gotten their panties in a wad over the recent shootings again and the Wannabe Tyrant In Chief is threatening to use that pen and paper of his while his minions in congress propose new gun control legislation.

The bottom line in this debate is whether or not restricting our 2nd Amendment rights will deter crime or increase crime. Will taking guns out of the hands of law abiding gun owners reduce crime or increase crime? Will our children be more safe on the streets by infringing upon our constitutional right to keep and bear arms?

Another important thing to consider in this debate, has crime increased since the Failure was elected in 2009? After all, he is the one leading the charge and getting ready to do what he can, yet again, with or without congressional approval.

HISTORICAL CRIME RATES

Here’s the data through 2012 as reported by the FBI on their Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics website.

VIOLENT CRIME– Rates are # of crimes per 100,000 people

There was a total of 1,214,464 violent crimes in 2012, for a rate of 386.9, the lowest rate since 1970.
There were 14,827 murders and nonnegligent manslaughters in 2012, for a rate of 4.7, the lowest since 1963.
There were 84,376 forcible rapes in 2012, for a rate of 26.9, the lowest since 1976.
There were 354,522 robberies in 2012, for a rate of 112.9, the lowest since 1967.
There were 760,739 aggravated assaults in 2012, for a rate of 242.3, the lowest since 1976.

PROPERTY CRIME

There was a total of 8,975,438 property crimes in 2012, for a rate of 2859.2, the lowest since 1967.
There were 2,103,787 burglaries in 2012, for a rate of 670.2, the lowest since 1965.
There were 6,150,598 larcenies/thefts in 2012, for a rate of 1959.3, the lowest since 1969.
There were 721,053 vehicle thefts in 2012, for a rate of 229.7, the lowest since 1963.

From a historical perspective, our crime rates are the lowest they’ve been for decades.

CRIME RATES DURING OBAMA

With all the hoopla surrounding mass shootings and gun control, one would likely assume crime has gotten worse over the last several years. Barack was elected in 2008 and started screwing our country on 1/20/09. Since elected he has tried incessantly to restrict our freedom to own any firearm we choose.

Below is the number and rates of crime since 2008 and the change in percentage. I used 2008 because that was the average for the entire year, which would’ve been the crime rates on the first of January 2009. We’ve been stuck with dummy at the helm since 19 days later. Let’s compare full year 1998 crime rates to the rates for 2012 listed above.

VIOLENT CRIME SINCE 1/1/2009

There was a total of 1,394,461 violent crimes, for a rate of 458.6, it has dropped 15.6% since.
There were 16,465 murders and nonnegligent manslaughters, for a rate of 5.4, it has dropped 13.0% since.
There were 90,750 forcible rapes, for a rate of 29.8, it has dropped 9.7% since.
There were 443,563 robberies, for a rate of 145.9, it has dropped 22.6% since.
There were 843,683 aggravated assaults, for a rate of 277.5, it has dropped 12.7% since.

PROPERTY CRIME SINCE 1/1/2009

There was a total of 9,774,152 property crimes, for a rate of 3,214.6, it has dropped 11.1% since.
There were 2,228,887 burglaries, for a rate of 733.0, it has dropped 8.9% since.
There were 6,586,206 larcenies/thefts, for a rate of 2,166.1, it has dropped 9.5% since.
There were 959,059 vehicle thefts, for a rate of 315.4, it has dropped 27.2% since.

After looking at the data since the moron has been working against #WeThePeople, clearly ALL property and violent crime rates have fallen. As noted above, we are at generational lows in all of them as well.

NUMBER OF FIREARMS IN AMERICA

The other thing we need to consider, are legal firearms helping or hurting the crime rates. To determine that we need to look at what the data says about firearms. Whenever someone buys a firearm through a licensed dealer they need to do an NICS background check. There are three important caveats to remember when looking at this data:

1. Not all background checks lead to a firearm sale. Therefore, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a background check and a firearm sale.
2. There were 2,553,281 background checks, during the timeframe we’ll look at below, that were for multiple firearms.
3. Many states do not require background checks when an individual sells or gifts a firearm to someone else. Therefore, the data only reflects background checks for firearm purchases initiated through the NICS database.

The FBI keeps data for background checks going back to 11/30/1998. The data runs through 5/31/2014. During this time period, there were 191,032,240 NICS background checks for firearm purchases. Considering the caveats above, the actual number of firearms sold was probably in excess of 200,000,000 over that timeframe. It would be safe to assume that almost everyone who did a background check did do so because they planned to walk out of the store with the firearm. Furthermore, we can estimate that the 2,553,281 background checks for multiple firearms were for the purchase of a minimum of two firearms, which would be 5,106,562. Lastly, we can assume there were several million sales or gifts of firearms between individuals over this 16 year timeframe.

Estimates of how many firearms are owned by private citizens in America seem to center around the 310,000,000 level. If we applied a one-to-one ratio to the data above we would estimate 191,000,000 firearm sales since 11/30/1998. This would mean that 61.6% of all firearm sales occurred in roughly the last 15 and a half years.

I do have to give credit where credit is due. Oblamer is the BEST firearm salesman in world history! Since January of 2009, his first month as president, there have been 95,048,232 NICS background checks for firearm purchases.

CRIME RATES SINCE 1998

If you listened to those who wish to infringe upon YOUR rights to purchase firearms whenever you choose, you would think that crime has skyrocketed since 190 million or so guns have been purchased by private citizens. What have crime rates in America done since 1998?

Violent crimes have fallen 31.8%
Murders and nonnegligent manslaughters have fallen 25.4%
Forcible rapes have fallen 22.0%
Robberies have fallen 31.8%
Aggravated assaults have fallen 33.0%

Property crimes have fallen 29.4%
Burglaries have fallen 22.4%
Larcenies/thefts have fallen 28.2%
Motor vehicle thefts have fallen 50.1%

CONCLUSION

That is a tremendous drop in every category of violent and property crimes, as well as the total for both. Whether one looks at the data historically, since Obeyme became president, or since roughly 61.6% of firearms have been sold, the data is irrefutable proof that more firearms in the hands of law abiding gun owners DOES NOT increase crime rates.

One could argue that more legal firearms is not the reason for the dramatic drop in crime rates. Just because crime rates have fallen while gun ownership has skyrocketed does not mean one is caused by the other. That is what’s known as causal fallacy. Put another way, correlation does not imply causation. Ask a criminal what he fears most and they overwhelmingly say an armed victim of their crime. I would feel very comfortable in saying more guns in homes and on law abiding citizens is exactly the reason crime rates have fallen.

At the very least, more guns do NOT equal more crime.

The next time a liberal gun control inane moron argues that we need to remove guns from law abiding citizen’s homes, ask them if that will reduce crime. Ask them if crime is higher now than at any timeframe we’ve gone over.

You’ll win the debate!

P.S.

From January 2013 through June of 2013 crime rates continued their fall.

Violent crime down 5.4%
Murder down 6.9%
Forcible rape down 10.6%
Robbery down 1.8%
Aggravated assault down 6.6%

Property crime down 5.4%
Burglary down 8.1%
Larceny/theft down 4.7%
Vehicle theft down 3.2%

P.S.S.

There were 21,093,273 NICS background checks for all of 2013 and we’re on pace for 22,714,236 this year.

I’ll bet anyone $1000 crime rates continue to fall as more people legally arm themselves.

Any takers?


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